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Problem Solving
Growth Models
Financial Mathematics
Logic & Set Theory
Probability & Counting
Statistics
Voting Theory
Voting Methods
In basic contests (elections) where everyone simply votes for their preferred candidate, there are two common rules by which a winner is chosen.
- Majority Rule
- A candidate must receive >50% of the vote, a majority, to win. In cases where there are more than two candidates, this condition may not be met, in which case a run-off election of some design must be held to determine a winner.
- Plurality Rule
- A candidate must receive the most votes — a plurality, not necessarily a majority — to win. Withholding ties, one candidate will always receive a plurality.
There are however more sophisticated voting methods that require voter to rather than just pick their single preferred candidate, to rank all the candidates from more preferred to least preferred. Such a ballot that ranks candidates is called a preference schedule.
- Single Run-Off
- In case there are more than two candidates and no candidate receives a majority of most-preferred votes, all but the top two candidates are eliminated, and their votes redistributed to the top two. This is how elections in the US are often conducted, but since we don’t fill out preference schedules the run-off election requires that everyone votes again. The utility of having voters fill out a preference schedule is that in the case of a run-off election, the information of how votes would be redistributed can be read from the preference schedule.
- Instant Run-Off
- Only subtly different than a single run-off contest, instead of eliminating all but the top two candidates and redistributing their votes, losing candidates are eliminated, and their votes redistributed, one-by-one.
- Borda Count Method
- This one’s a bit more novel. Candidates are awarded points based on their positions in voters’ preference schedules, and the candidate with the most votes total is the winner. There is not canonical way to assign points, but a common method you’ll see is this: a candidate is awarded 1 point per ballot on which they’re ranked last, 2 points per ballot on which they’re ranked second-to-last, 3 points per ballot on which they’re ranked third-to-last, and so on.
- Condorcet Method
- Also called the method of pairwise comparison, or a round-robin tournament, every pair of candidates is considered independently in a head-to-head contest, and a winner is decided between those two. The overall winning candidate is the one who won the most head-to-head contests. If any candidate wins every head-to-head contest, they are called a Condorcet winner.
Let’s walk through each of these methods with an example. Suppose a first-grade class gets to choose a class pet. Their teacher presents them with four options — a fish, a gecko, a mouse, or a rock — and the 23 first-graders are asked to vote on which pet they’d prefer by filling out a preference schedule. With four candidates, there are 4! = 24 different ways that students could have ranked the possible pets. Lucky for us, only seven of those possibilities appeared. Their votes are recorded here:
| First | mouse | mouse | mouse | gecko | gecko | fish | rock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second | gecko | fish | rock | fish | mouse | gecko | fish |
| Third | fish | gecko | gecko | rock | fish | mouse | gecko |
| Fourth | rock | rock | fish | mouse | rock | rock | mouse |
| 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Fairness Criterion
A noble goal would be to establish objective, mathematical criterion that a contest should should satisfy if it is to be considered a “fair” contest. Here are four such criterion:
- Condorcet Criterion
- If a candidate is preferred to every other candidate when compared head-to-head — i.e. they are a Condorcet winner — then that candidate should win.
- Majority Criterion
- If a candidate has a majority of first-place (top-rank) votes, then that candidate should win.
- Monotonicity Criterion
- If any single voter were to change their ballot to rank a specific candidate higher, then that candidate’s position overall should not decrease.
- Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) Criterion
- If a non-winning candidate is removed from the ballot, then the outcome of the contest should not change.
It would be nice if we could declare that a voting system is “fair” because it satisfies each of these criterion. Unfortunately, though these criterion appear innocuous enough, this cannot be done. The fact — a fact known formally as Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem (1951) — is that there is no ranked-voting method that satisfies all four of these criterion. In particular, each of the voting methods we’ve discussed violates at least one of these fairness criterion; there exists an example of a contest of each of these types that doesn’t satisfy some condition of being “fair”.
As examples let’s consider contests with three candidates: Aldous is a red-team candidate while Beatrix and Clive are blue-team, and Clive will “spoil” the fairness of each contest.
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A plurality contest can violate the IIA criterion This is often a concern in US elections, that a third candidate, Clive, will “split the vote”. Suppose that Aldous, Beatrix, and Clive, all run for president of the US. There are 538 electors in US elections, so and the final electorate count is a follows:
Aldous Beatrix Clive Total 249 212 77 Aldous got the most electoral votes, but not a majority of votes, so nobody wins this election. However if Clive were removed from the ballot, all of this blue-team voters would have instead voted for Beatrix, giving her a 289-vote majority, and violating the IIA criterion. This example also shows how plurality voting violates the Condorcet criterion.
In the US, in the case that that no candidate gets a majority of electoral votes, a contingent election is held, where among the top-three presidential candidates the House of Representatives vote-by-state for the president, and among the top-two vice presidential candidates the Senators independently vote for the vice president.
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A single or instant run-off contest can violate the Monotonicity criterion Using a ranked-voting method, among three candidates there are six total possible rankings. Suppose Aldous, Beatrix, Clive, and some Dummy candidate that only two electorates like, compete in such a contest and the final tally of ballots is as follows:
First Aldous Aldous Beatrix Beatrix Clive Clive Dummy Second Beatrix Clive Aldous Clive Aldous Beatrix Clive Third Clive Beatrix Clive Aldous Beatrix Aldous Beatrix Fourth Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Aldous 268 0 0 268 0 0 2 Now imagine that those two electorates who appeared to prefer Dummy, were actually just confused about the ranked-choice ballot and accidentally ranked their preference backwards. Fixing this error, we see that Aldous now wins the election with a majority in the first round instead of Beatrix even though the updated ballots of those two electorates ranked Beatrix higher than they did before!
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The Borda count method can violate the Majority criterion This can happen when a losing candidate gets enough second- and third-preference points to overtake the candidate that a majority of people prefer most. Consider this preference schedule as an example.
First (3pts) Aldous Aldous Beatrix Beatrix Clive Clive Second (2pts) Beatrix Clive Aldous Clive Aldous Beatrix Third (1pt) Clive Beatrix Clive Aldous Beatrix Aldous 270 0 0 268 0 0 Total Aldous 1078 Beatrix 1344 Clive 806 A majority of people prefer Aldous, but think Beatrix is okay, and a large minority of people prefer Beatrix but think Aldous is just the worst. In terms of points, this results in a win for Beatrix despite a majority of people preferring Aldous.
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A Condorcet contest can violate the IIA criterion This one is a bit tougher to demonstrate, because we need more candidates. Suppose Aldous, Beatrix, Clive, Dante, and Ernest are candidates in a Condorcet contest. Between these five candidates there are ten head-to-head bouts. To simplify the situation, let’s forget about votes and just look at who beat who.
Aldous beats everyone except Beatrix. Beatrix beats Clive but loses to Dante and Ernest. Clive beats Dante but loses to Ernest. Dante beats Ernest.
Aldous Beatrix Clive Dante Ernest Total 3 2 1 2 2 We see that Aldous is the winner having won the most head-to-head bouts, though he is not a Condorcet winner since he lost to Beatrix. But suppose that shortly after the contest Dante and Ernest were found dead: assassinated. Every head-to-head involving them is now disregarded. This would leave the following head-to-head total, resulting in Beatrix being the winner.
Aldous Beatrix Clive Total 1 2 0 In general, if you have any candidate in a Condorcet contest who won at least one head-to-head bout, if every person she lost to is removed, she’ll become the Condorcet winner of the resulting competition.