What is Equifinality
- "different parameter sets may equally produce acceptable simulations"
Keith Beven
- Modelers do not really know which set of input parameters likely describe a real
world situation
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You can think of this as the Theory of Multiple Working Hypotheses and Goedel's knowability coming together.
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The Theory of Multiple Working Hypotheses states that sciences advance faster
when they tend to have a number of working hypotheses and time is spent devising a
test that will invalidate some number of the hypotheses.
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Goedel's knowability concept implies that there can always be something we
have no knowledge of acting influencing a system.
- Even if modelers had more information there would still be processes going
on they would not know about
- Measuring is an imprecise process
- Computers cannot simulate very much complexity of a real system
- Analytical mathematics covers even a smaller amount of complexity
- Decisions are going to be made (informed or not)
What to do?
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