Conclusions and Future Direction

1. Ahh let the kid do it. Realize there is a 5% chance of being wrong even if the world was as simple as these models.
2. The variety of inputs, the inexactness of setting up the device and differing theories seem to be on your side.
3. Compare the comfort you would have with this decision to one where only a single simulation was done. (The typical case for decisions today.)
4. In the future could you ahead of time eliminate some process (drag for example) from the simulation and still make the right decision? This would be of a great benefit if the more complex model took days to weeks to run (and they easily can).
5. This is interesting because it really does take some knowledge in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics and a little physics to analyze to this level.

In case you were wondering the "god" model included humidity that decreased effectiveness of the lighter fluid, and a horizontal wind that could blow +-7mph was added to the drag.